Numbers don't lie — opinions often do

Numbers don't lie. Opinions often do.

In countless articles, YouTube clips and — alas — more and more talk shows with "experts", figures about civilian deaths in Gaza are thrown around at will. Naturally to "prove" the alleged genocide, famine and water shortages, because hundreds of thousands of dead sound impressive.

The crown goes to Francesca Albanese, the UN Special Rapporteur for the Palestinian territories. She cited 680,000 dead, of whom she said 380,000 were children under five — more than the total number of under-fives living in Gaza before the war. She also kept citing inflated numbers of killed doctors, journalists and UN staff, without accounting for the Hamas fighters killed — because "civilian deaths" simply sounds better.

That she received a joint honorary doctorate from three Flemish universities (UAntwerpen, UGent and VUB) in April 2026 and was then informally invited to the Dutch parliament fits that picture. The foreign minister declined, as did the committee. She did speak at gatherings in The Hague and Amsterdam. This plays the Netherlands, the world and views on genocide off against one another, without contributing to peace. A role that does not befit the UN.

I limit myself to a report from Palestine itself: the Annual Mortality Report – Gaza Strip 2025 of the Palestinian Ministry of Health, published in September 2026.

- In 2025 the ministry registered 24,650 deaths in Gaza: 18,085 men (73.4%) and 6,565 women (26.6%). - The crude death rate was 11.59 per 1,000, against 3.46 per 1,000 excluding war-related deaths. - Direct targeting was the leading cause of death, with 17,286 cases (70.1%). - By area: Rafah highest at 47.2 per 1,000, North Gaza 31.3; the Middle Area lowest at 5.3.

The ministry stresses that weakened healthcare and limited access to medicine also cause additional deaths, and calls for protection of medical facilities and rapid rehabilitation of the health system.

By early October 2026, the ministry's total since 7 October 2023 stood at 74,228 dead. That is the figure commentary and analysis should use. In my view it shows a war with a lamentable death toll, not a genocide.

N.B.: fighters killed ("martyrs") are included in this count too. The ministry applies a verification process; thousands of names have previously been removed. There is no exact public figure for how many fighters' families receive monthly payments from the Palestinian Authority. According to PMW and Israeli and American sources, an estimated 35,000 families receive a base payment of about 1,400 shekels a month, and some 30,000 new "martyrs" were reportedly added after 7 October 2023. A PA official mentioned €16.5 million a month on television. The PA has repeatedly promised to reform this "pay for slay" system; according to those reports, the payments continue.

My conclusion: weighing those numbers, I estimate the real number of civilian deaths at around 45,000. Terrible and deplorable, but in stark contrast to real genocides. In the propaganda war against Israel these figures will, no doubt, be … forgotten.